Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
