A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
